Sharing Responsibility
T&V Letter Q1 2025
Whether in families or on the markets: uncertainty cannot always be avoided, but it can be better understood. Open conversations about wealth, values, and succession provide guidance across generations. At the same time, the market environment demonstrates how vital diversification, substance, and a clear focus on long-term risks remain.
Insight
When families speak openly about wealth, it creates not only clarity but also trust across generations.
In the past, people remained silent about it. Today, families talk about money – and in doing so, they change their future.
Who inherits what? Who takes on responsibility? And which values should remain? Today, such questions are no longer put off, but discussed early on – not out of a sense of duty, but out of a desire for clarity, trust, and cohesion.
Estate planning is more than just distributing real estate or shares. It is about what really matters: identity, leadership, perspective. Grandparents, parents, and children sit down together, talk about the family business, about purpose, about what should remain. When everyone is heard, sustainable decisions emerge – sometimes in agreement, sometimes challenging, but always valuable.
The nature of the conversation is also changing: less instruction, more exchange. Responsibility is shared, knowledge is passed on. Especially when it comes to topics such as succession, inheritance law, or financial education, it becomes clear how crucial a shared understanding across generations is.
The fact that money is no longer a taboo is a welcome development. Where there is conversation, trust grows. Where families look forward together, wealth becomes more than just possession – it becomes a bond that connects generations and extends beyond the material.
NEWSLETTER
Dear Reader
In recent weeks, the markets have shown significantly increased volatility. In the US, the protectionist trade policy of the new administration is causing uncertainty. President Trump announces new import tariffs almost weekly – with the declared aim of protecting domestic industry. This is leading to rising import costs, uncertainty for companies, and a potential slowdown in economic growth.
At the same time, the government is planning deep cuts in state spending. Together with entrepreneur Elon Musk, Trump is pursuing the goal of significantly reducing the role of the state in areas such as infrastructure, education, and energy. While this could trigger structural changes in the long term, it remains unclear in the short term how lower public investments will affect employment, demand, and innovation.
For US companies, the new environment means a phase of increased planning uncertainty. Export-oriented firms are faced with potential countermeasures from abroad. At the same time, new tariffs are making imported primary products more expensive, affecting primarily industries with global supply chains – such as the automotive sector, mechanical engineering, and the electronics industry. In the consumer sector as well,
Tensions with trading partners
International trading partners of the USA are watching developments with growing skepticism. Initial reactions, such as announced retaliatory tariffs, point to a possible escalation. Countries with a strong export focus – including Germany, China, Canada, and Mexico – could lose growth momentum if tensions persist. Trade barriers of this kind tend to have a dampening effect on growth in the globalized economy, as they slow down investments and weaken confidence.
Endangered division of labor as a structural risk
In addition, new trade barriers impair the international division of labor – one of the central driving forces of economic development. The increasing specialization of economies and the international division of production processes have contributed significantly to raising productivity and prosperity over past decades. If these structures are weakened by protectionist measures, there is a threat of not only a decline in efficiency but also a slowdown in global growth.
A paradigm shift is also emerging at the multilateral level: while international cooperation and rules-based trade were considered the engine of global stability for decades, national interests are now once again in the foreground. This complicates not only economic planning but also political coordination processes in international organizations and trade bodies. Against this backdrop, an additional question arises.
Is US trade policy aimed at fighting inflation?
What if the US administration's trade policy is less motivated by protectionism and is instead a strategic means of dampening inflation? Perhaps those around the President have considered how to deliberately slow down growth – for example through tariffs, political uncertainty, and pressure on financial markets – in order to curb consumption and price-driving wealth effects. At the same time, such a policy could strengthen the US as a production location by making imports less attractive and domestic providers more competitive. The goal: to reduce inflation in order to give the central bank room to cut interest rates as quickly as possible – with potential benefits for financing costs, investments, and the debt budget.
Diversification returns to center stage
Against the backdrop of economic and political uncertainty, a clear shift is also emerging in the market. The price losses of the "Magnificent Seven" reveal how vulnerable a one-sided market concentration can be – a risk we already addressed in the T&V Letter of the fourth quarter of 2024. Since the beginning of 2025, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Tesla have fallen between -20% and -37% in CHF terms, while Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple each lost over -13%. Only Meta remains somewhat more stable at -4%. The S&P 500 is trading at -6.6%.
In contrast, other markets are proving more robust: After four challenging years, the Swiss SPI achieved a pleasing performance of around +8%, while the STOXX Europe 600 stands at +6% when calculated in CHF. This development underscores that in an environment characterized by uncertainty, diversification remains the most effective protection against cluster risks. We remain vigilant and continue to focus on long-term substance rather than short-term headlines.
As always, thank you for your continued trust!
*This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a personal recommendation or an independent financial analysis.
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