Sharing Responsibility
T&V Letter Q1 2025
Whether in families or on the markets: uncertainty cannot always be avoided, but it can be better understood. Open conversations about wealth, values, and succession provide guidance across generations. At the same time, the market environment demonstrates how vital diversification, substance, and a clear focus on long-term risks remain.
Insight
When families speak openly about wealth, it creates not only clarity but also trust across generations.
In the past, people remained silent about it. Today, families talk about money – and in doing so, they change their future.
Who inherits what? Who takes on responsibility? And which values should remain? Today, such questions are no longer put off, but discussed early on – not out of a sense of duty, but out of a desire for clarity, trust, and cohesion.
Estate planning is more than just distributing real estate or shares. It is about what really matters: identity, leadership, perspective. Grandparents, parents, and children sit down together, talk about the family business, about purpose, about what should remain. When everyone is heard, sustainable decisions emerge – sometimes in agreement, sometimes challenging, but always valuable.
The nature of the conversation is also changing: less instruction, more exchange. Responsibility is shared, knowledge is passed on. Especially when it comes to topics such as succession, inheritance law, or financial education, it becomes clear how crucial a shared understanding across generations is.
The fact that money is no longer a taboo is a welcome development. Where there is conversation, trust grows. Where families look forward together, wealth becomes more than just possession – it becomes a bond that connects generations and extends beyond the material.
NEWSLETTER
Dear Reader
In recent weeks, the markets have shown a significantly increased level of volatility. In the US, the protectionist trade policy of the new administration is causing uncertainty. President Trump announces new import tariffs almost on a weekly basis – with the declared aim of protecting domestic industry. This leads to rising import costs, uncertainty for businesses, and a potential slowdown in economic growth.
At the same time, the administration is planning deep cuts in government spending. Together with entrepreneur Elon Musk, Trump is pursuing the goal of significantly reducing the role of the state in areas such as infrastructure, education, and energy. While this could trigger structural changes in the long term, it remains unclear in the short term how lower public investment will affect employment, demand, and innovative strength.
For US companies, this new environment means a phase of increased planning uncertainty. Export-oriented firms face potential countermeasures from abroad. At the same time, new tariffs are making imported primary products more expensive, which primarily affects industries with global supply chains – such as the automotive sector, mechanical engineering, and the electronics industry. In the consumer sector, too, higher prices on imported goods could lead to lower purchasing power. These developments are not without consequences internationally either.
Tensions with Trading Partners
International trading partners of the US are observing these developments with growing skepticism. Initial reactions, such as announced retaliatory tariffs, point to a potential escalation. Countries with a strong export focus – including Germany, China, Canada, and Mexico – could lose growth momentum if tensions persist. Trade barriers of this kind tend to have a dampening effect on growth in the globalized economy, as they slow down investment and weaken confidence.
Endangered Division of Labor as a Structural Risk
Furthermore, new trade barriers impair the international division of labor – one of the central drivers of economic development. The increasing specialization of economies and the international division of production processes have contributed significantly to rising productivity and prosperity in recent decades. If these structures are weakened by protectionist measures, there is a risk of not only a decline in efficiency but also a slowdown in global growth.
A paradigm shift is also emerging at the multilateral level: while international cooperation and rules-based trade were seen as the engine of global stability for decades, national interests are now once again increasingly in the foreground. This complicates not only economic planning but also political coordination processes in international organizations and trade bodies. Against this backdrop, a further question arises.
Is US Trade Policy Aimed at Fighting Inflation?
What if the US administration's trade policy is less protectionist in motivation, and more of a strategic means to curb inflation? It is possible that those around the President have considered how to deliberately slow down growth – for example through tariffs, political uncertainty, and pressure on the financial markets – in order to curb consumption and price-driving wealth effects. At the same time, such a policy could strengthen the US as a production location by making imports less attractive and domestic providers more competitive. The goal: to lower inflation in order to give the central bank room for interest rate cuts as quickly as possible – with potential benefits for financing costs, investments, and the national debt.
Diversification Moves Back to the Center
Against the backdrop of economic and political uncertainty, a clear shift is also visible in the market. The price losses of the "Magnificent Seven" reveal how vulnerable a one-sided market concentration can be – a risk that we already addressed in the T&V Letter from the fourth quarter of 2024. Since the beginning of 2025, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Tesla are down between -20% and -37% when calculated in CHF, while Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple each lost over -13%. Only Meta is holding up somewhat more stably at -4%. The S&P 500 is trading at -6.6%.
In contrast, other markets are proving more robust: after four challenging years, the Swiss SPI achieved a pleasing performance of around +8%, while the STOXX Europe 600 stands at +6% when calculated in CHF. This development highlights that in an environment shaped by uncertainty, diversification remains the most effective protection against cluster risks. We remain vigilant and continue to guide our actions by long-term substance rather than short-term headlines.
As always, we thank you for the trust you have placed in us!
*This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a personal recommendation or an independent financial analysis.
*By entering your email address, you agree to receive updates and communications from us. You can unsubscribe at any time.
