Interests and the Future

About eight years ago, we discovered a video of Tony Seba on YouTube. Back in 2017, he predicted that 2023/2024 would be the point in time when an electric car would be cheaper than an internal combustion engine vehicle. This prediction came very close to reality. Since then, we have been closely following his ideas and lectures. Seba, a renowned author, entrepreneur, and thought leader in the field of technological disruption, recently published an impressive piece entitled "This time we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots". His insights on the disruption of labor by humanoid robots shed light on a transformative period we are about to experience, similar to the significant changes brought about by the advent of automobiles in the early 20th century.

Throughout history, any technology that has enabled a cost reduction by a factor of 10 or more compared to the existing system has always triggered a disruption. Today, we stand on the brink of the most profound disruption of human labor since the introduction of electricity and internal combustion engines over a century ago.

Insight 1: The inevitable rise of humanoid robots

Advances in sensors, AI, actuators, and energy systems have made humanoid robots increasingly cost-effective and capable. A humanoid robot with a lifespan of 20,000 working hours and a total cost of 200,000 USD would mathematically cost 10 USD per hour. Despite this relatively high price, these robots are already competitive with human labor in a large part of the global economy. In reality, the lifetime cost of humanoid robots is expected to be under 200,000 USD from the very start. The cost of labor from such robots is projected to fall below 1 USD per hour before 2035 and below 0.10 USD per hour before 2045.

Insight 2: The creation of a new labor system

Humanoid robots will not only replace human jobs but will create a new labor system characterized by near-zero marginal costs of labor. This shift requires new business models, similar to the internet and digital technologies, which reduced the marginal cost of information and communication to near-zero.

Insight 3: Focus on tasks instead of jobs

Robots will perform tasks, not jobs. Initially, they will take on simpler tasks and execute more complex functions as their capabilities increase. This shift changes how we measure labor and productivity, with a focus on tasks per hour per dollar.

Insight 4: Productivity will skyrocket

The deployment of humanoid robots will significantly reduce the cost of all products and services and improve quality. Robots perform tasks precisely and without human error, leading to more affordable and higher-quality goods. Additionally, it will massively expand the available workforce, thereby growing the economy on a per capita productivity basis to an extent that was previously physically impossible.

Preparing for the future

The first phase of robot adoption will help compensate for labor shortages. In the long run, decision-makers must prepare for an era where machines do most of the work. This transition will require careful planning to ensure a stable and equitable societal transformation.

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